By: Rebekah de la Mora, Senior Policy Analyst
Offshore wind, while mature in some parts of the world, is still a budding energy resource in the United States. At almost 12,500 miles, the United States has one of the longest oceanic coastlines on the planet (not to mention 4,500 miles along the Great Lakes!), providing a host of opportunities for offshore wind development. States are advancing offshore wind in a variety of ways, with two big pillars: statewide targets, and competitive solicitations. This post will cover those two main pillars, along with a look at existing offshore wind capacity and recent investigations into offshore wind deployment.
Existing Targets
Of the 30 states with offshore wind potential, nine currently have a statewide target. Two states have deadlines in the 2020s, four states in the first half of the 2030s, and three states in 2040. Target completion is usually met in one of two ways: facility deployment or RFP issuance. For example, Rhode Island's mandate was the issuance of an RFP for 600 - 1,000 MW by October 15, 2022, which its electric distribution company RI Energy met.
Three states -- Maryland, New Jersey, and North Carolina -- have goals for offshore wind deployment. While the wording can often be vague or contradictory across statutes, for our purposes here, there are two types of targets: mandates and goals. "Mandates" originate with state legislatures and include clear directives for achieving the targets, and may include penalties for non-compliance. “Goals” are more aspirational and are normally established by Executive Orders, which can be easily repealed by a future governor. Even though the goals are not legally binding, they are still some of the most ambitious of all nine states, calling for 8.5, 8, and 11 GW respectively; only New York's 9 GW mandate comes close, with the next target at 5.6 GW in Massachusetts.
| State | Target Year | Target MW | Statutory Authority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rhode Island | 2022 | 600 - 1,000 MW | R.I.G.L § 39-31-10 |
| Massachusetts | 2027 | 5,600 MW | 2022 Mass. Acts Chapter 179, Section 61 |
| Federal | 2030 | 30,000 MW | March 29, 2021 White House Press Release |
| Connecticut | 2030 | 2,000 MW | Conn. Gen. Stat. § 16a-3n |
| Maryland | 2030 | 1,200 MW | Md. Public Utilities Code § 7-701 et seq. |
| Maryland | 2031 | 8,500 MW | Md. Public Utilities Code § 7-704.1 |
| Virginia | 2032 | 5,200 MW | VA Code § 56-585.1:11 |
| New York | 2035 | 9,000 MW | NY CLS Public Service § 66-p (5) |
| Maine | 2040 | 3,000 MW | 35-A M.R.S. § 3404 |
| New Jersey | 2040 | 11,000 MW | NJ Executive Order 307 |
| North Carolina | 2040 | 8,000 MW | NC Executive Order 218 |
| Federal | 2050 | 110,000 MW | March 29, 2021 White House Press Release |
Table Note: Standard text indicates mandates. Italics indicates goals.
Another set of three states -- Maine, Maryland, and Virginia -- established or accelerated offshore targets in 2023. Maine legislators created a new mandate of 3 GW by 2040. Meanwhile, Maryland lawmakers created a new goal of 8.5 GW by 2031 to accompany its existing mandate of 1.2 GW by 2030, and Virginia’s General Assembly moved the state's existing 5.2 GW mandate up from 2034 to 2032. Virginia has a statewide 5.2 GW mandate, as well as a utility-specific mandate within this of 2.5-3 GW for Dominion Energy with the same updated timeline.
At the federal level, the Departments of Interior, Energy, and Commerce agreed to deploy 30 GW of offshore wind by 2030. This goal is not directly tied to an executive order, but is a memorandum between the three participating federal agencies. Achieving state-level targets would result in the deployment of 9.4 GW by 2030, leaving an additional 20 GW across the country to meet the national goal. This memorandum also establishes a federal goal of 110 GW of offshore wind by 2050, of which a bit under half is reached by state-level targets. Interestingly, the United States also has a goal to deploy 15 GW of floating offshore by 2035, and the Floating Offshore Wind Shot program aims to reduce the cost of floating offshore wind by over 70% -- down to $45/MWh.
On the other end of the target spectrum, Florida has banned any new offshore wind turbines located near the state's coastlines. While there is precedent for offshore wind moratoriums -- North Carolina used to have one, as did the federal government along the Southeastern Atlantic -- Florida’s new ban appears to be permanent. Florida also has the second-longest coastline in the country, behind only Alaska, creating a significant roadblock to the country's offshore potential.
Operating and Approved Projects
According to the United States Department of Energy's Offshore Wind Market Report, 13 states have over 52.7 GW of offshore wind in the pipeline, as of May 31, 2023. The nine states with targets account for 43.8 GW, while California, Delaware, Louisiana, and Ohio account for 8.9 GW. At the time of the report, only Rhode Island and Virginia had operating systems, totaling 42 MW, and there were 932 MW under construction in Massachusetts and New York. Of that 932 MW, 200 MW is now online, with the rest expected by the end of the year. An article from Utility Dive (last updated June 20, 2024, as of this blog post) notes almost 15 GW under construction across 14 farms, with deployment expected through 2028.
| Operation Year | State | Company | Project | MW |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Rhode Island | Ørsted | Block Island Wind | 30 MW |
| 2020 | Virginia | Dominion, Ørsted | Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (pilot) | 12 MW |
| 2024 | New York | Ørsted | South Fork Wind | 132 MW |
| 2024 | Massachusetts | Avangrid | Vineyard Wind (partial) | 68 MW |
| 2024 | Massachusetts | Avangrid | Vineyard Wind (full) | 732 MW |
Requests for Proposals
In October 2023, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island signed a memorandum of understanding on offshore wind. The three states will coordinate their offshore solicitations with each other, particularly regarding multi-state bids (i.e. projects that would provide electricity to multiple states). A multi-state bid must be chosen by all applicable states to be approved. All three states closed offshore solicitations in March 2024, with decisions expected later this year: 2 GW in Connecticut, 2.6 GW in Massachusetts, and 1.2 GW in Rhode Island. In addition, Connecticut closed a generic zero-carbon solicitation in March, for which offshore was eligible, while Rhode Island is proposing adding offshore to its general new renewables solicitation in August.
Many solicitation selections have faced cancellation or annulment. Two projects in Massachusetts totaling 1.6 GW were rescinded in Q2 2023, originally chosen in an early 2022 solicitation; the developers plan to re-submit the projects to a future solicitation at higher costs. Two projects in New Jersey totaling 2.2 GW were fully discontinued due to supply chain and economic issues. New York and Rhode Island both completely scrapped solicitations that closed in 2023; New York had provisionally awarded over 4 GW and canceled due to technical and commercial complexities, while Rhode Island rejected the only bid it received.
Utility-Level Implementation
Utility planning is another way for a state to implement offshore wind. In Q1 2024, ongoing integrated resource planning reviews included almost 65 GW of wind, of which offshore made up less than 8 GW. The bias towards onshore wind is to be expected, given the maturity of the technology and the country's geography; however, of the four states with offshore wind included in a utility’s integrated resource plan (IRP), only one has a target while the other three do not. California's statewide 2023 preferred system plan -- essentially an amalgamation of the investor-owned utilities’ IRPs -- was approved in February 2024, and includes 4.5 GW of offshore wind by 2035. In Hawaii, HECO’s IRP includes 400 MW by 2035. Meanwhile, Duke Energy revised its IRP filed in North Carolina (8 GW by 2040 goal) and South Carolina in January to include 2.4 GW of offshore by 2038.
Studies and Future Implementation
Offshore wind turbine off the coast of Virginia; photo taken by Emily Apadula.
Connecticut’s Department of Economic and Community Development released an Offshore Wind Strategic Roadmap in October 2023, summarizing the state's strengths, commitments, and investments in offshore wind. While the state has an existing mandate of 2 GW by 2030, the roadmap estimates that an additional 3.7 - 5.7 MW is needed to meet the state's existing zero-carbon targets by 2040. In conjunction with the roadmap, the state launched the Connecticut Wind Collaborative non-profit to implement actions to support the industry. Oregon’s Department of Land Conservation and Development will be developing a similar Offshore Wind Roadmap, as required by a bill enacted in February 2024. In March, the Illinois Power Agency released a policy study examining the impact of various proposed bills, including one bill implementing a procurement process for 700,000 RECs per year for 20 years from an offshore wind facility in Lake Michigan. The study concluded that offshore would not markedly affect reliability or resilience, and that more research is needed to overcome offshore wind challenges.
Whether states can meet their offshore wind goals is yet to be determined. Economic and supply chain issues are some of the most pressing obstacles at this point in time, but aren’t the only ones: the complex process from planning to permitting through construction, various policy barriers, disagreements during the contracting process, etc. And yet, despite the challenges of offshore wind development, states are demonstrating strong support for the industry. Solicitations are being released on a nearly annual basis in some states, and more facilities will come online by the end of the year. Most offshore wind action is occurring along the Atlantic coast, but we are beginning to see action in the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Great Lakes. Legislative mandates are becoming more popular, and existing targets are ambitious and timely. The offshore wind industry has a long road ahead, but is working ever-harder to smooth the ride.